Model Scoreboard

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Skill by variable & lead time (45-day window, truth = KVVS)

Lower MAE / Brier = better. Best model per (variable, lead) highlighted. Bias = model average minus observed — the amount the blend subtracts.
VariableLead ≤ hModelNBiasMAERMSEBrier
dewpoint_f 6 nws 152 0.92 1.66 2.07 —
ecmwf_ifs025 297 1.19 1.75 2.23 —
gfs_hrrr 298 -1.41 1.90 2.46 —
gfs_seamless 298 -1.41 1.90 2.46 —
icon_seamless 274 1.93 2.49 3.00 —
dewpoint_f 12 nws 146 1.20 1.61 1.97 —
ecmwf_ifs025 222 1.36 1.88 2.36 —
gfs_hrrr 242 -1.43 1.92 2.43 —
gfs_seamless 242 -1.43 1.92 2.43 —
icon_seamless 216 2.58 2.70 3.04 —
dewpoint_f 24 nws 252 1.53 1.67 2.09 —
gfs_hrrr 412 -1.27 1.73 2.16 —
gfs_seamless 412 -1.27 1.73 2.16 —
ecmwf_ifs025 416 1.46 1.74 2.18 —
icon_seamless 418 2.45 2.49 2.82 —
dewpoint_f 48 nws 462 0.87 1.22 1.72 —
gfs_hrrr 682 -0.76 1.44 1.90 —
gfs_seamless 870 -0.43 1.44 1.91 —
ecmwf_ifs025 811 1.23 1.44 1.90 —
icon_seamless 736 1.93 2.27 2.60 —
dewpoint_f 72 ecmwf_ifs025 776 1.17 1.38 1.83 —
nws 451 -0.76 1.48 1.82 —
icon_seamless 791 0.11 1.89 2.66 —
gfs_seamless 896 -0.57 1.98 2.36 —
dewpoint_f 120 ecmwf_ifs025 1488 1.00 1.71 2.26 —
nws 813 -1.43 2.19 2.68 —
icon_seamless 1587 -1.05 2.58 3.41 —
gfs_seamless 1633 -2.14 3.10 4.08 —
dewpoint_f 168 ecmwf_ifs025 265 0.30 1.10 1.48 —
nws 130 -0.86 1.45 1.73 —
gfs_seamless 264 -1.34 1.78 2.11 —
icon_seamless 265 -3.66 3.99 4.59 —
pop_brier 6 radar 1 — — — 0.000
gfs_hrrr 332 — — — 0.061
gfs_seamless 332 — — — 0.061
nws 132 — — — 0.150
ecmwf_ifs025 332 — — — 0.295
icon_seamless 332 — — — 0.415
pop_brier 12 gfs_hrrr 294 — — — 0.064
gfs_seamless 294 — — — 0.064
nws 132 — — — 0.116
icon_seamless 294 — — — 0.366
ecmwf_ifs025 294 — — — 0.393
pop_brier 24 gfs_hrrr 585 — — — 0.071
gfs_seamless 585 — — — 0.071
nws 262 — — — 0.200
icon_seamless 585 — — — 0.304
ecmwf_ifs025 585 — — — 0.355
pop_brier 48 gfs_hrrr 1152 — — — 0.158
gfs_seamless 1152 — — — 0.158
icon_seamless 1152 — — — 0.234
nws 517 — — — 0.260
ecmwf_ifs025 1152 — — — 0.308
pop_brier 72 icon_seamless 1154 — — — 0.086
gfs_hrrr 1154 — — — 0.136
gfs_seamless 1154 — — — 0.136
nws 519 — — — 0.167
ecmwf_ifs025 1154 — — — 0.215
pop_brier 120 icon_seamless 1406 — — — 0.088
gfs_hrrr 1406 — — — 0.096
gfs_seamless 1406 — — — 0.096
nws 638 — — — 0.103
ecmwf_ifs025 1406 — — — 0.187
pop_brier 168 nws 5 — — — 0.177
icon_seamless 15 — — — 0.219
ecmwf_ifs025 15 — — — 0.229
gfs_hrrr 15 — — — 0.249
gfs_seamless 15 — — — 0.249
precip_in 6 ecmwf_ifs025 67 0.03 0.03 0.04 —
icon_seamless 125 0.04 0.04 0.05 —
gfs_hrrr 21 0.06 0.07 0.12 —
gfs_seamless 21 0.06 0.07 0.12 —
radar 5 0.81 0.81 1.74 —
precip_in 12 ecmwf_ifs025 61 0.03 0.03 0.05 —
icon_seamless 106 0.04 0.04 0.05 —
gfs_hrrr 18 0.32 0.32 0.68 —
gfs_seamless 18 0.32 0.32 0.68 —
precip_in 24 icon_seamless 184 0.04 0.04 0.06 —
ecmwf_ifs025 113 0.04 0.04 0.07 —
gfs_hrrr 67 0.42 0.42 0.79 —
gfs_seamless 67 0.42 0.42 0.79 —
precip_in 48 icon_seamless 324 0.03 0.03 0.05 —
ecmwf_ifs025 232 0.04 0.04 0.06 —
gfs_seamless 222 0.06 0.06 0.11 —
gfs_hrrr 57 0.09 0.09 0.17 —
precip_in 72 ecmwf_ifs025 183 0.03 0.03 0.04 —
icon_seamless 258 0.03 0.03 0.04 —
gfs_seamless 336 0.04 0.04 0.06 —
precip_in 120 ecmwf_ifs025 339 0.03 0.03 0.04 —
gfs_seamless 359 0.03 0.03 0.05 —
icon_seamless 179 0.04 0.04 0.07 —
precip_in 168 icon_seamless 30 0.00 0.01 0.01 —
gfs_seamless 45 0.02 0.02 0.03 —
ecmwf_ifs025 54 0.04 0.04 0.05 —
temp_f 6 ecmwf_ifs025 390 -0.22 2.34 3.26 —
nws 169 1.94 2.62 3.60 —
gfs_hrrr 404 1.45 2.64 3.90 —
gfs_seamless 404 1.45 2.64 3.90 —
icon_seamless 364 0.77 3.76 4.88 —
temp_f 12 nws 153 1.17 2.09 2.65 —
ecmwf_ifs025 285 -0.75 2.84 3.79 —
gfs_hrrr 306 2.13 3.17 4.46 —
gfs_seamless 306 2.13 3.17 4.46 —
icon_seamless 253 -0.08 3.59 4.16 —
temp_f 24 nws 268 0.54 2.05 2.70 —
ecmwf_ifs025 817 -0.93 2.22 2.92 —
icon_seamless 820 0.04 2.56 3.25 —
gfs_hrrr 846 2.10 2.82 3.95 —
gfs_seamless 846 2.10 2.82 3.95 —
temp_f 48 nws 497 -0.32 1.93 2.53 —
ecmwf_ifs025 1308 -0.86 2.04 2.79 —
icon_seamless 1278 0.44 2.51 3.18 —
gfs_hrrr 793 1.52 2.60 3.56 —
gfs_seamless 1200 0.11 2.78 3.74 —
temp_f 72 icon_seamless 1309 -0.23 2.36 3.01 —
ecmwf_ifs025 1303 -1.50 2.45 3.09 —
nws 501 -2.26 2.58 2.98 —
gfs_seamless 1092 -3.14 3.80 4.49 —
temp_f 120 ecmwf_ifs025 2089 -0.80 2.34 2.93 —
nws 876 -0.48 3.15 3.77 —
icon_seamless 2180 0.88 3.21 4.19 —
gfs_seamless 2022 -2.34 4.49 5.60 —
temp_f 168 nws 129 1.27 2.40 3.05 —
ecmwf_ifs025 615 -0.70 2.84 3.84 —
icon_seamless 281 1.79 3.53 4.71 —
gfs_seamless 648 -1.36 4.25 5.57 —
wind_dir_deg 6 icon_seamless 366 53.93 83.62 111.26 —
ecmwf_ifs025 363 44.38 88.76 114.51 —
gfs_hrrr 378 68.69 107.83 154.95 —
gfs_seamless 378 68.69 107.83 154.95 —
wind_dir_deg 12 ecmwf_ifs025 284 34.49 92.80 120.22 —
icon_seamless 269 59.49 95.32 123.20 —
gfs_hrrr 314 66.26 109.51 152.79 —
gfs_seamless 314 66.26 109.51 152.79 —
wind_dir_deg 24 ecmwf_ifs025 549 45.55 98.68 123.12 —
icon_seamless 474 63.38 105.80 132.52 —
gfs_hrrr 561 83.71 144.32 185.26 —
gfs_seamless 561 83.71 144.32 185.26 —
wind_dir_deg 48 icon_seamless 986 81.80 124.29 150.48 —
ecmwf_ifs025 1014 55.57 126.76 147.73 —
gfs_seamless 1035 79.95 151.33 180.41 —
gfs_hrrr 808 87.32 160.02 189.75 —
wind_dir_deg 72 gfs_seamless 1003 50.66 106.38 127.24 —
icon_seamless 970 85.90 122.30 159.92 —
ecmwf_ifs025 986 71.91 130.41 155.89 —
wind_dir_deg 120 ecmwf_ifs025 1639 24.60 62.51 95.92 —
icon_seamless 1674 15.32 64.92 91.18 —
gfs_seamless 1792 27.68 69.50 97.11 —
wind_dir_deg 168 ecmwf_ifs025 234 -3.81 22.43 28.18 —
gfs_seamless 281 -2.68 31.21 40.35 —
icon_seamless 284 -26.00 50.34 59.09 —
wind_gust_mph 6 ecmwf_ifs025 60 -5.93 6.79 9.28 —
icon_seamless 62 -6.68 7.11 9.52 —
gfs_hrrr 62 -9.36 10.49 12.71 —
gfs_seamless 62 -9.36 10.49 12.71 —
wind_gust_mph 12 ecmwf_ifs025 39 -7.74 8.01 10.53 —
icon_seamless 37 -9.98 9.98 12.48 —
gfs_hrrr 40 -14.47 14.47 16.17 —
gfs_seamless 40 -14.47 14.47 16.17 —
wind_gust_mph 24 ecmwf_ifs025 71 -7.56 8.10 9.97 —
icon_seamless 70 -9.64 9.83 11.62 —
gfs_hrrr 69 -14.41 14.41 15.66 —
gfs_seamless 69 -14.41 14.41 15.66 —
wind_gust_mph 48 ecmwf_ifs025 76 -13.91 13.91 15.25 —
icon_seamless 78 -14.23 14.23 15.74 —
gfs_hrrr 55 -17.57 17.57 18.63 —
gfs_seamless 74 -17.94 17.94 19.01 —
wind_gust_mph 72 icon_seamless 91 -17.31 17.31 18.93 —
ecmwf_ifs025 94 -18.16 18.44 20.57 —
gfs_seamless 94 -24.17 24.17 25.52 —
wind_gust_mph 120 ecmwf_ifs025 209 -6.96 9.36 12.48 —
icon_seamless 200 -8.85 10.22 14.68 —
gfs_seamless 205 -10.96 12.30 15.56 —
wind_gust_mph 168 icon_seamless 52 -0.27 4.12 4.24 —
ecmwf_ifs025 52 4.45 4.70 4.97 —
gfs_seamless 52 1.07 5.74 6.71 —
wind_mph 6 nws 146 -2.29 2.57 3.48 —
icon_seamless 271 -1.98 2.61 3.18 —
gfs_hrrr 346 0.01 2.77 3.48 —
gfs_seamless 346 0.01 2.77 3.48 —
ecmwf_ifs025 317 -0.24 2.84 3.46 —
wind_mph 12 ecmwf_ifs025 241 -0.39 2.71 3.35 —
nws 125 -2.40 2.77 3.77 —
icon_seamless 207 -2.00 2.82 3.30 —
gfs_hrrr 245 -0.12 3.28 4.10 —
gfs_seamless 245 -0.12 3.28 4.10 —
wind_mph 24 icon_seamless 443 -1.52 2.74 3.37 —
nws 234 -2.36 2.78 3.82 —
ecmwf_ifs025 503 -0.40 2.90 3.61 —
gfs_hrrr 561 0.11 3.00 3.75 —
gfs_seamless 561 0.11 3.00 3.75 —
wind_mph 48 nws 414 -1.62 2.36 3.32 —
icon_seamless 752 -0.83 2.39 3.13 —
ecmwf_ifs025 870 -0.07 2.85 3.50 —
gfs_seamless 916 0.32 2.87 3.59 —
gfs_hrrr 665 0.65 3.18 3.89 —
wind_mph 72 icon_seamless 772 -0.66 2.12 2.70 —
nws 457 -1.09 2.33 3.04 —
gfs_seamless 873 0.73 2.43 2.93 —
ecmwf_ifs025 934 0.12 2.79 3.42 —
wind_mph 120 nws 823 -0.35 1.93 2.43 —
icon_seamless 1439 -0.90 2.26 2.71 —
gfs_seamless 1577 1.01 2.45 3.10 —
ecmwf_ifs025 1626 1.39 2.73 3.32 —
wind_mph 168 nws 132 -0.47 2.03 2.37 —
icon_seamless 256 -1.79 2.32 2.75 —
ecmwf_ifs025 396 1.19 2.81 3.50 —
gfs_seamless 414 1.58 3.05 4.00 —

Per-model rain % — next 48h (raw inputs to the blend; the dashboard shows only our weighted number)

Valid (UTC)gfs_hrrrgfs_seamlessecmwf_ifs025icon_seamlessnws
07-10 19:00 24 24 91 23 67
07-10 20:00 26 26 96 28 57
07-10 21:00 21 21 96 28 51
07-10 22:00 17 17 87 23 56
07-10 23:00 10 10 72 25 64
07-11 00:00 14 14 59 20 54
07-11 01:00 15 15 47 18 30
07-11 02:00 14 14 37 20 30
07-11 03:00 13 13 31 23 24
07-11 04:00 11 11 34 28 19
07-11 05:00 6 6 41 25 29
07-11 06:00 7 7 47 48 24
07-11 07:00 14 14 48 65 30
07-11 08:00 18 18 48 68 34
07-11 09:00 16 16 47 55 29
07-11 10:00 17 17 46 48 24
07-11 11:00 11 11 44 53 24
07-11 12:00 11 11 47 48 21
07-11 13:00 9 9 57 30 27
07-11 14:00 8 8 71 40 27
07-11 15:00 9 9 82 40 29
07-11 16:00 9 9 87 55 35
07-11 17:00 12 12 89 55 37
07-11 18:00 11 11 90 50 45
07-11 19:00 12 12 90 48 46
07-11 20:00 15 15 88 25 45
07-11 21:00 21 21 86 30 35
07-11 22:00 19 19 84 33 29
07-11 23:00 18 18 81 35 37
07-12 00:00 13 13 73 23 7
07-12 01:00 17 17 54 18 2
07-12 02:00 9 9 30 13 0
07-12 03:00 3 3 12 5 0
07-12 04:00 2 2 5 3 0
07-12 05:00 2 2 3 0 0
07-12 06:00 2 2 2 0 0
07-12 07:00 0 0 1 0 0
07-12 08:00 0 0 0 0 0
07-12 09:00 0 0 0 0 0
07-12 10:00 0 0 0 0 0
07-12 11:00 0 0 0 0 0
07-12 12:00 0 0 0 0 0
07-12 13:00 0 0 0 0 0
07-12 14:00 0 0 0 0 0
07-12 15:00 0 0 0 0 0
07-12 16:00 0 0 4 0 0
07-12 17:00 0 0 11 0 0
07-12 18:00 0 0 16 0 4
07-12 19:00 3 3 20 0 4

Data volumes

ModelForecast rows
ecmwf_ifs025538,837
gfs_hrrr138,015
gfs_seamless615,861
icon_seamless540,279
nws20,096
radar496

Collector log

Time (UTC)CollectorStatusMessage
2026-07-10T19:14:46Zradar_nowcast ok 4 rows
2026-07-10T19:14:27Zradar_nowcast ok 4 rows
2026-07-10T19:14:27Zmetar_KMGW ok 100 rows
2026-07-10T19:14:27Zmetar_KVVS ok 92 rows
2026-07-10T19:14:26Zopen_meteo_forecast ok 5180 rows
2026-07-10T19:14:26Znws_forecast ok 624 rows
2026-07-10T19:14:14Zradar_nowcast ok 4 rows
2026-07-10T19:10:55Zscoring ok 208 score rows
2026-07-10T19:09:13Zradar_nowcast ok 4 rows
2026-07-10T19:08:54Zradar_nowcast ok 4 rows
2026-07-10T19:08:54Zmetar_KMGW ok 98 rows
2026-07-10T19:08:53Zmetar_KVVS ok 96 rows
2026-07-10T19:08:53Zopen_meteo_forecast ok 5180 rows
2026-07-10T19:08:53Znws_forecast ok 620 rows
2026-07-10T19:08:06Zradar_nowcast ok 4 rows
2026-07-10T19:04:48Zscoring ok 208 score rows
2026-07-10T19:03:05Zradar_nowcast ok 4 rows
2026-07-10T19:02:46Zradar_nowcast ok 4 rows
2026-07-10T19:02:46Zmetar_KMGW ok 97 rows
2026-07-10T19:02:46Zmetar_KVVS ok 96 rows
2026-07-10T19:02:45Zopen_meteo_forecast ok 5180 rows
2026-07-10T19:02:45Znws_forecast ok 620 rows
2026-07-10T19:02:01Zradar_nowcast ok 4 rows
2026-07-10T19:01:42Zradar_nowcast ok 4 rows
2026-07-10T19:01:42Zmetar_KMGW ok 97 rows